Caspar Berry kicks off second day of InvestmentEurope Fund Selector Summit
Caspar Berry (pictured), motivational speaker and former professional poker player opened the second day of the InvestmentEurope Pan European Fund Selector Summit in Hamburg, addressing what fund selectors can learn from poker players in terms of risk management.
Berry described how online poker playing has completely revolutionised the poker industry, helping players to analyse their opponents past behaviour but he also emphasised the importance of interpreting body language and other unconscious signals.
“It is almost impossible to predict the future but we know that relatively tiny things can have a big impact, we know this as the famous butterfly effect. Mohamed Bouazizi setting himself on fire led to the Arab Spring, the failure of the Spanish Armada was affected by a change of wind direction.”
“We need certainty, constantly putting up health and safety signs what not to do , in an attempt to catch the risk factor, but it is never about the one butterfly, in reality there is always an infinite number of butterflies” he argues.
Based on an academic research by Philip Tetlock, Berry states that the less sure decision makers were of their decisions, the more likely they were to be right.
He concludes that going forward, both, interpreting unconscious signals and quantitative data will be of vital importance.