Macro trends: Who benefits? Who gets hurt? – Credit Suisse
Credit Suisse’s research analysts outlines four key macro trends impacting asset prices in the coming months.
Accelerating global GDP growth; falling macro uncertainty; slowing growth in EM relative to DM and bond yields continue to rise are the main four factors that Credit Suisse research analysts pointed at as the most likely to affect asset prices in the coming months.
As Credit Suisse’s latest equity research report highlighted, year-on-year global GDP growth is accelerating for the first time in three years and US rates strategists expect 10-year US Treasury yields to rise to around 3.1% in Q2 2014.
looking at US marcoeconomics, the report said: “Our proxy of US macro uncertainty has recently fallen to a six-year low – and we think it is set to drop further as the US budget deficit continues to fall (the CBO projects a 2015 deficit of only 2.1% of GDP), Europe is recovering and banks’ deleveraging is diminishing.”
However, in spite of the recent rebound in EM lead indicators, Credit suisse’ research analysts said that they believe growth in emerging markets wil continue to disappoint compared with that in DM, due to EM excess private sector leverage, commodity exposure and limited spare capacity in the labour market.
Click hee to read full research: [asset_library_tag 7226,Global Equity Strategy]