They said it – views from 2010 about 2011 revisited
As the end of 2011 draws near, predictions for 2012 are coming thick and fast. Yet, who can claim to have clairvoyant abilities and who is just hoping last year’s analysis will be buried with their financial losses? InvestmentEurope brings you a series of brief outlooks for 2011 as they were.
Jeff Holland, Managing Director at Liongate Capital Management:
“Just as with 2010, 2011 will require an adaptive approach to capital investment. There are recent signs of optimism: ISM, retail and employment data have all picked up. Growing markets (it is time to do away with the phrase ‘emerging markets’) are proving resilient, driving global growth. These are though paired with some significant uncertainties. Sovereign debt problems (most notably in Europe) and fiscal austerity measures hang over developed markets. Inflation in growing markets and the sustainability of capital inflows are also causes for concern.
“Much of the outcome of the next year will depend on the actions of policy makers, both in regulation as well as fiscal and monetary policy actions. The fallout from the transition of private debt to public balance sheets will continue; the solution is still unclear. Emerging markets are already focusing on tightening policy stances, and developed markets will need to carefully consider this though most likely not in 2011. Deploying capital will therefore require a flexible and tactical approach as well as careful consideration of trades to hedge adverse outcomes.”