They said it – views from 2010 about 2011 revisited

As the end of 2011 draws near, predictions for 2012 are coming thick and fast. Yet, who can claim to have clairvoyant abilities and who is just hoping last year’s analysis will be buried with their financial losses? InvestmentEurope brings you a series of brief outlooks for 2011 as they were.

Oliver Kelton, co-manager of the Waverton European Fund at JO Hambro Investment Management:

“… lots of people see Europe as ‘doomed’, like a ship that has been torpedoed and is sinking. The ‘Sovereign Issues’ of the PIGS and the solvency of their banks is hardly helping. However, all is not bad…. First, Europe is very much a beneficiary of ‘Global Growth’. Almost 50% of Eurozone ‘corporate’ sales are now outside Europe. Second, there is an emerging productivity story…If Europe wishes to access capital markets, it will have to take the necessary measures to reduce wasteful spending and improve productivity. Third, savings ratios in the Eurozone were around 10% going into the crisis, compared with -4% in the US. This suggests the domestic demand story maybe more resilient than some believe…the overall Eurozone is less affected by the ‘periphery’ than feared.”

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