Swedish economists sceptical about Greece bailout deal
Nordea and SEB economists are unimpressed with the deal struck overnight for a second €130bn bailout of Greece.
Anders Matzen, head analyst for the euro area at Nordea, said that the agreement as published is unlikely to be enough to get the Greek debt burden down to the target of 120% of GDP.
Among the key issues unanswered is just how the agreement will implement in practice clauses that refer to retroactive haircuts if participation from private sector bondholders is insufficient to meet the target.
Then there are the grumblings by certain IMF members, who are becoming tired of the approach, and who question whether the Fund is taking on too much risk.
Greece’s economic development is also questionable. Matzen notes that the country is in the midst of a deep recession, which makes it all but impossible to stabilise, let alone reduce, the country’s debt burden proportionately to GDP. With elections upcoming in the country, he told Dagens Industri that this is unlikely to be the last that the world hears about the Greek debt crisis.
SEB economist Richard Falkenhäll identified the need to restore Greek competitiveness as the key to a long lasting solution.
Efforts to improve competitiveness since the introduction of the euro have failed. This leaves painful wage cuts as the only option, but together with rising taxes and other cutbacks this will hit the economy, Falkenhäll warned.