Yield falls seen on European govies

Yields fell on most 10 year government debt across Europe in the past month, with France and Sweden they key exceptions, according to Tradeweb data.

On a basis point measure, Portuguese debt saw its yield contract by 21.75 points to end November, to a yield of 2.32% that represented a spread against German bunds of 184.25 points.

Greece saw a fall of -29.35 points to close the month on a yield of 7.37%.

Ireland saw its yield fall 12.3 bps, taking the month end yield to 0.99%.

The yield on Spanish government debt fell 15.15 bps to end the month at 1.52%.

Even German 10 year bunds saw yield narrow by 4.95 bps, to a new month end level of 0.47%.

Contrasting the trend was France. Perhaps unsurprising given events in Paris through Novemher, yields rose on its government debt by 0.55 bps to end the month at a rate of 0.79% – a spread of 31.55 bps versus the 10 year bund yield.

Sweden, where the central bank has expressed renewed concerns about levels of household debt affecting growth rates, saw the yield on its government debt rise 11.5 bps, to end the month at a level of 0.74%.

Looking further afield, the Tradeweb data suggests just Japanese government debt remains more expensive on a yield basis than German bunds.

The benchmark Japanese 10 year debt saw its yield rise by 0.05 bps through November, to end the month at 0.3%. This represented a spread against the bund of -17.5 bps, the data suggests. Canadian and US government debt ended the month on yields of 1.57% and 2.22% respectively. This represents a spread against the bund of 109.4 bps and 174.4 bps respectively.

tradeweb november 2015 govies

(Source: Tradeweb)

According to the latest ECB Financial Stability Review, published by the European Central Bank on 25 November, the euro area is subject to rising risks from outside the eurozone.

The key risks identified include:
• Increased risk of an abrupt reversal of global risk premia amplified by low secondary market liquidity
• Weak profitability prospects for banks and insurers in a low nominal growth environment, amid incomplete balance sheet adjustments
• Potential risk of rising debt sustainability concerns in the public and non-financial private sectors amid low nominal growth
• Increased potential risk of stress in a rapidly growing shadow banking sector amplified by spillovers and liquidity risk


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