Italy bailout ‘inevitable’ within six months – leading bank

It is “inevitable” Italy will need an EU bailout in the next six months, according to analysts at the country’s second largest bank.

In a private note to clients seen by UK newspaper the Telegraph, Mediobanca said it has fears over Italy’s solvency as bond yields continue to rise. It also said some 160 large companies in the country are now in special crisis administration.

Analyst Antonio Guglielmi said in the note: “The Italian macro situation has not improved over the last quarter, rather the contrary.”

He said Italy will “inevitably end up in an EU bailout request” over the next six months, unless it can count on low borrowing costs and a broader recovery, the Telegraph reports.

Mediobanca said the trigger for a blow-up in Italy could be a financial crisis in Slovenia or Argentina, which has close links to Italian business. “Argentina in particular worries us, as a new default seems likely.”

The ongoing sell-off in bond markets is also putting pressure on Italy’s large debt pile.

The yield on Italian 10-year government bonds has risen more than 100 basis points to 4.8% since the US Federal Reserve hinted it will soon begin to ‘taper’ QE, removing the artificial support from bond markets.

 

This article was first published by Investment Week

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