Russia rate hike on cards as rouble falls

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On Friday, the Russian currency hit new historic lows against the US dollar. Technically, the CBR will have to intervene only when the ruble falls close to the RUB39/$ level, but before doing so, we think the bank will first opt to hike its interest rates again, possibly even as early as this week.

  • Ruble weakness mostly on a major rise in geopolitical risk:

o   Ukraine leaders claim that thousands of Russian troops are fighting in south-eastern Ukraine, a claim rejected by Russian officials

o   In response, Western nations have started to discuss the introduction of new sanctions against Russia

  • Other reasons for the ruble’s weakness include:

o   Softer crude oil prices with Urals blend balancing at $100/bbl mark

o   Seasonality – demand for RUB falls after tax payment season ends

  • CBR unwillingness to spend FX reserves – in line with the announced shift to RUB free-float – has added to the ruble’s woes

 

Vladimir Tikhomirov is chief economist at BCS Financial Group, the largest broker of securities on the Moscow Exchange.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jonathan Boyd
Editorial Director of Open Door Media Publishing Ltd, and Editor of InvestmentEurope. Jonathan has over two decades of media experience in Japan, Australia, Canada and the UK. Over the past 17 years he has been based in London writing about funds and investments. From editing the newsletter of the Swedish Chamber of Commerce in Japan in the 1990s he now focuses on Nordic markets for InvestmentEurope. Jonathan was awarded Editor of the Year at the Professional Publishers Association (PPA) Independent Publisher Awards 2017. Shortlisted for the same in 2016, he was also shortlisted in 2017 and 2015 for the broader PPA Awards category Editor of the Year (Business Media).

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