Banks nationalised, Apple shares collapse, wheat doubles in Saxo Bank outlook

Denmark’s Saxo Bank has published an outlook of extreme events that could take place in 2012, including Basel III leading to banks being nationalised, Apple’s share price collapsing, and wheat prices doubling.

Here is the list of 10 key “wild” projections.

1. Apple’s share price declines 50% from its peak in 2011

At the start of 2012 Apple will face many competitors such as Google, Amazon, Microsoft/Nokia and Samsung, who want to challenge the company’s most innovative products, the iPhone and iPad. Apple will not be able to maintain its market share of 55%.

 

2. The EU declares a mandatory bank holiday in 2012

The EU Treaty changes from December prove to be insufficient to address the EU’s capital needs, especially in Italy, and the European debt crisis returns with a bang in the middle of the year. In reaction, the stockmarket collapses by 25%, which in turn forces EU politicians to declare a so-called Bank Holiday. European stock exchanges close for a week or more.

 

3. An as yet unknown candidate takes the White House.

In 1992 the Texas billionaire Ross Perot used an economy in recession and voter disgust with US politics to secure 18.9% of the vote. Three years of Obama has brought too little change and increased voter frustration over the US system. The conditions for a candidate from a third party have never been better.

 

4. Australia falls into recession

The consequences of slowing growth in China spreads like rings on water in the Asia Pacific region, and pushes other countries into recession. If there is any country dependent on China’s success it is Australia, with its dependence on the mining sector and resources. In line with China’s declining demand for such materials, Australia is pushed into recession, which is made worse by its property sector – which after five years of delay finally goes through the collapse that the rest of the developed world has suffered.

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