Citigroup forecast raises spectre of UK double dip

Citigroup and Scotia Capital have predicted a 0.2% contraction in GDP growth for the second quarter, renewing fears of a double-dip recession in the UK.

The banking groups said growth has stuttered following poor sentiment in the manufacturing and construction sectors, reports the Sunday Times.

Both the forecasts came after figures at the end of last week showed the construction industry grew just 0.4% in May, leaving the sector 2.7% down year-on-year.

Alan Clarke, chief UK economist at Scotia Capital, said the reversal in growth for Q2 may force the Bank of England to implement another round of quantitative easing.

“It is going to be a long hard slog and those pinning their hopes on an industrial revolution to drag the wider economy out of a recession are likely to be disappointed,” he added.

J.P. Morgan, Royal Bank of Scotland and Barclays have all predicted flatline growth for Q2, ahead of the release of the official figure on 26 July.

J.P. Morgan has forecast no growth, Royal Bank of Scotland has predicted 0.1%, and Barclays 0.2%.


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