Nomura report: UK could leave EU by autumn

The UK could leave the European Union by this autumn should the eurozone debt crisis intensify further, it has been suggested in a study by Japanese bank Nomura.

Alastair Newton, a former adviser to Tony Blair, the British prime minister between 1997-2007, authored the 11-page study in which he said the EU may be forced to take drastic steps towards fiscal union to save the euro, making it impossible for a sovereign state like the UK to remain. A referendum will called in the UK, leading to a ‘Brixit’ before the end of the year.

An extract from the report, printed in The Telegraph, said: “A deepening of the eurozone crisis in the immediate future remains a real possibility despite the recent efforts of the ECB in particular to calm markets. This, in turn, could spur acceleration in integration in order to try to prevent the collapse of the eurozone, thereby advancing projects which are likely to prove difficult for the British government.

“It is only a matter of time, in our view, before crisis-related steps are agreed which necessitate treaty changes. In those circumstances, the British government will almost certainly demand ‘treaty change for treaty change’ in an effort to repatriate powers, i.e. be looking to win repatriation of powers to London for every concession on treaty reform sought by the eurozone on a one-for-one basis.”

Meanwhile, in a separate report by Reuters, Blair told a German newspaper he is “deeply worried” Britain might leave the European Union in a referendum, if too many powers were transferred to Brussels without democratic legitimacy.


This article was first published on Investment Week

Close Window
View the Magazine

You need to fill all required fields!