Brexit fears legitimate

Lombard Odier has researched macroeconomic and financial market impacts of a Brexit, should the referendum taking place on 23 June in the UK swing towards an exit.

On the macro front, the implications could lead to questions around UK sovereign solvency, pressure on terms of trade, and political fallout across the EU.

The key risk in financial markets is to the currency: Lombard Odier suggests that investors would seek safehaven s in the dollar and Swiss franc, sending the value of sterling down.

Gilts prices might not actually be pressured, because of the relatively low level of foreign ownership of gilts, versus the situation for US Treasuries or French sovereign debt.

For investors in FTSE 100 companies, there may be different effects on different sectors, maknig sector exposure important for returns going forward. Generally, however, Lombard Odier expects that volatility would increase in the wake of a Brexit.

To view the research click here:

Investment Strategy Bulletin final – 2016 04 12 – Brexit Part I

Investment Strategy Bulletin final – 2016 04 12 – Brexit Part II




Jonathan Boyd
Editorial Director of Open Door Media Publishing Ltd, and Editor of InvestmentEurope. Jonathan has over two decades of media experience in Japan, Australia, Canada and the UK. Over the past 17 years he has been based in London writing about funds and investments. From editing the newsletter of the Swedish Chamber of Commerce in Japan in the 1990s he now focuses on Nordic markets for InvestmentEurope. Jonathan was awarded Editor of the Year at the Professional Publishers Association (PPA) Independent Publisher Awards 2017. Shortlisted for the same in 2016, he was also shortlisted in 2017 and 2015 for the broader PPA Awards category Editor of the Year (Business Media).

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