Brexit fears legitimate
Lombard Odier has researched macroeconomic and financial market impacts of a Brexit, should the referendum taking place on 23 June in the UK swing towards an exit.
On the macro front, the implications could lead to questions around UK sovereign solvency, pressure on terms of trade, and political fallout across the EU.
The key risk in financial markets is to the currency: Lombard Odier suggests that investors would seek safehaven s in the dollar and Swiss franc, sending the value of sterling down.
Gilts prices might not actually be pressured, because of the relatively low level of foreign ownership of gilts, versus the situation for US Treasuries or French sovereign debt.
For investors in FTSE 100 companies, there may be different effects on different sectors, maknig sector exposure important for returns going forward. Generally, however, Lombard Odier expects that volatility would increase in the wake of a Brexit.
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