Equant Analytics reports $2.1trn of unreported trade globally
Freshly launched fintech and advisory firm Equant Analytics has published its first report revealing $2.1trn of missing trade in the world.
Equant Analytics has calculate world trade at $21.22trn compared with WTO’s $19.09trn.
Equant Analytics has developed the Equant Analytics Divergence Ratio (EADR) which measures the difference between officially published data and mirrored data, which tracks the trade flow between two countries and creates a weighted average so that import and export values are consistent.
The $2.1trn gap between the WTO official number and the numbers identified by the mirrored data put together by Equant are the result of a cross-referenced screening of 200 countries and jurisdictions, as well as 12,800 products and sectors.
Overall, an average of 11% of global trade has been unaccounted for over the past 15 years, the report also shows.
According to Equant’s data, Switzerland had the largest numerical discrepancy in 2014 among the top 10 countries making up $873bn of the total $2.1trn global difference.
The top 10 includes: Switzerland, China, Hong Kong, UAE, France, UK, Russia, Singapore, Philippines and Malaysia.
Such discrepancy has been particularly acute in Switzerland’s case since 2013 and even more 2014, mainly due to the significant increase in oil and gas trade between Russia and Switzerland, the report reveals.
China came second in terms of the largest discrepancy, with some $123.9bn unreported trade, closely followed by Hong Kong which came third with $123.2bn of unreported data.
Other significant discrepancies were identified in Afghanistan, for which raw data from Comtrade is missing data between 1996 and 2007. As a result, Equant says, the country’s raw data trade with the world was $10.1bn, while the mirroring process returned a value of Afghanistan’s trade of $14.4bn.
Kenya’s case showed a more consistent gap of $16.6bn, with official raw data coming in at $11bn and Equant’s mirroring process showing a total of $27.6bn.
Click here to read full report EquantAnalytics_MindTheGap_03_02_16