SEB outlines three Brexit scenarios

The most likely outcome of the upcoming UK referendum on EU membership is that the country remains in rather than leaves, according to a report from  SEB.

The Nordic bank says there is a 65% probability the UK will vote to remain.

In its second scenario, for which it sees a 25% probability, there will be a ‘soft no’ resulting in renegotiation before the UK decides to remain.

The third scenario is for a ‘hard no’, which sees the UK exit. SEB sees a 10% probability of this happening.

SEB also puts foward estimates of the impact on sterling, UK GDP growth rates, and yields on UK 10-year government bonds per each of the possible outcomes.

Click here to read the full report: Brexit_final

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jonathan Boyd
Editorial Director of Open Door Media Publishing Ltd, and Editor of InvestmentEurope.
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