SEB outlines three Brexit scenarios

The most likely outcome of the upcoming UK referendum on EU membership is that the country remains in rather than leaves, according to a report from  SEB.

The Nordic bank says there is a 65% probability the UK will vote to remain.

In its second scenario, for which it sees a 25% probability, there will be a ‘soft no’ resulting in renegotiation before the UK decides to remain.

The third scenario is for a ‘hard no’, which sees the UK exit. SEB sees a 10% probability of this happening.

SEB also puts foward estimates of the impact on sterling, UK GDP growth rates, and yields on UK 10-year government bonds per each of the possible outcomes.

Click here to read the full report: Brexit_final

Jonathan Boyd
Editorial Director of Open Door Media Publishing Ltd, and Editor of InvestmentEurope. Jonathan has over two decades of media experience in Japan, Australia, Canada and the UK. Over the past 17 years he has been based in London writing about funds and investments. From editing the newsletter of the Swedish Chamber of Commerce in Japan in the 1990s he now focuses on Nordic markets for InvestmentEurope. Jonathan was awarded Editor of the Year at the Professional Publishers Association (PPA) Independent Publisher Awards 2017. Shortlisted for the same in 2016, he was also shortlisted in 2017 and 2015 for the broader PPA Awards category Editor of the Year (Business Media).

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