Nordea Markets Emerging Markets View: House of cards – September 2018

EM currencies have stabilised somewhat since the latest edition of the Emerging Markets View, not least due to significant support from the central banks of Turkey, Argentina and Russia. Most emerging markets remain vulnerable and several vicious cycles are still at play that could spark a fresh round of sell-offs. 1) FX weakness will pass through to higher inflation and, in turn, to lower growth, adding to the risk of more FX weakness. 2) FX weakness will make USD debt tougher to finance and service, increasing the risk of further FX weakness. 3) Crisis countries pose a contagion risk through trade and financial linkages as well as owing to the adverse impact on general emerging market sentiment.

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