Reporting on Norwegian manager Skagen’s annual New Year’s investor meeting in Oslo, local newspaper Dagens Næreingsliv has quoted co-founder and portfolio manager Kristoffer Stensrund saying that oil at the latest price of around $50 could be in place for up to four years.
Stensrud would not be drawn on speculating where the price would head, but did suggest that the consensus on the pace of recovery in the price may be too optimistic.
He added that he would not be surprised if the price of oil remained at today’s levels, perhaps even lower, for the next four years, DN reported.
Stensrud pointed to the last time oil prices reversed significantly in the mind-late 1980s. Then, it also took some four years for prices to recover, spurred on by the geopolitical crisis centred on the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait.
The long term market price of oil currently looks set to remain depressed not least because Opec’s members seem to be looking to maintain a competitive price, Stensrud has said.