A couple of weeks ago, UBS Wealth Management unveiled a study on potential winners of the upcoming football’s FIFA World Cup 2018 in which it assessed Germany is likely to lift the trophy in Moscow next 15 July. The Swiss group credited some 24% chance of success to Germany, followed by Brazil (19.8%) and Spain (16.1%).
Yet another Swiss company based in Geneva, Decalia Asset Management, has predicted the victory of Germany as well in its latest research note as the German squad provides the best combination of factors.
The Decalia World Competitiveness Country Scoring combines various criteria across four equally weighted categories including Macroeconomy, Corruption & Innovation, Market Risk and their official FIFA score.
“More specifically, whereas our Macro assessment considers hard data such as GDP growth, inflation and economic performance index, our corruption & innovation score adopts a more qualitative approach, taking into account the corruption perceptions index computed by Transparency International and the Global Innovation Index published by Cornell University, INSEAD, and the World Intellectual Property Organisation. Finally, our Market Risk rating for each country includes CDS, equity volatility & performance, and FX volatility.
“The combination of all four categories then provides an overall score for each country that is used to determine the winner of every championship match,” explains Decalia.
Surprisingly, Decalia’s proprietary macro scorings suggests Switzerland could reach the final, that will see an ultimate 4-2 victory of Germany.
In Decalia’s view, Switzerland eventually takes over Brazil as leader in the group E and then eliminates Sweden, Belgium and Denmark, that the Swiss firm sees reach the tournament’s semi-finals after beating Croatia then Spain.
According to Decalia’s study, Brazil would be crushed (again) by Germany (5-0) in the round of 16 while France would exit the competition in quarter finals, losing to Portugal.
Others surprises include the absence of Argentina and Russia, only winning a game against Egypt, and the presence of Saudi Arabia in the round of 16. This same stage sees the defeat of England against Poland in Decalia’s scorings.
“With the exception of Brazil almost repeating its disastrous 2014 performance against Germany, the first round of the knockout phase offered only little surprises from a sport perspective. Indeed, most favourite teams advanced to the next level while Switzerland narrowly beat Sweden after penalty shootout, helped by its higher FIFA ranking.
“In the quarter finals, Denmark caused the sensation by defeating Spain 2-1 thanks to a better Corruption and Market Risk rating. Meanwhile, Switzerland sneaked past Belgium with its better innovation index & market risk eventually making the difference. The stage was then set for thrilling semi-finals with both Denmark and Switzerland reaching this level for the first time and offering a tight but spectacular game with the latter ultimately snatching victory (3-2) while Germany marched over Portugal (3-1).
“The big day has finally arrived! On the evening of 15 July in Moscow’s boiling Luzhniki Stadium, the 2018 Decalia World Cup final sees the Swiss “Nati” challenger defying the current title holder, Germany’s insatiable “Mannschaft”. The national anthems are sung proudly and loudly while tears are flowing down fans’ cheeks. Alas, despite a brave start and early lead for Switzerland driven by its superior corruption & innovation ratings, the suspense proved short-lived as Germany took advantage of its greater experience to come back and win the game 4-2, helped by its better Macro score and higher FIFA ranking.”
And Decalia to recall’s English player Gary Lineker famous quote: “Football is a simple game; 22 men chase a ball for 90 minutes and at the end, the Germans win.”