NN Investment Partners (NN IP) has upgraded its estimate for Chinese GDP growth from 5.9% to 6.2% for 2019 based on expectations of economic policy easing.
China’s policy stimulus is likely to lead to a higher growth in Chinese fixed investment, which represents 42% of GDP.
As China represents 40% of total Emerging Market (EM) GDP, this higher-than-anticipated Chinese GDP growth will also push EM aggregate GDP growth higher.
Maarten-Jan Bakkum, senior emerging markets strategist, NN IP, commented: “We expect EM economic growth to avoid a sharp slowdown in the coming quarters. The decline in export growth is likely to be modest and domestic demand growth should remain resilient.
“The Chinese stimulus and solid credit growth outside of the fundamentally challenged countries of Turkey, Argentina, South Africa, Indonesia and Brazil provide further reasons for confidence.
“Our aggregate EM GDP growth forecast for 2019 is 4.9%, compared with 5.3% for this year.”