Bank of Spain’s general director of Economics and Statistics Pablo Hernández de Cos said the institution expects the Catalan political turmoil to impact on Spanish GDP just in the fourth quarter of 2017, and to have disappeared in the first quarter of 2018.
The positive forecast coincides with the most benign scenario the Bank had previously posed , with an impact on GDP of around 0.3% compared to the 2.5% that had been predicted given the worst case scenario.
Regarding the upcoming regional elections to be held on 21 December in Catalonia, Hernández said that the scenario after the election’s outcome will depend mainly on the reaction that political parties take.
The institution foresees the Spanish economy to grow by 3.1% in 2017, by 2.5% in 2018 and by 2.2% in 2019.
The Bank of Spain published on 28 September a report on the macroeconomic projections for the period 2017-2019, in which it referred for first time to the potential impact of the Catalan political crisis on the economy.